A variety of forecasts for the upcoming holiday shopping season reveal a consensus that consumers will be spending with caution. Key highlights from BIA, eMarketer and McKinsey are included below. Competition for consumer spending will likely be more intense, so brands that implement their marketing plans earlier will have an advantage.
OAAA’s Morning Consult study, OOH Impact on Retail Marketing, showcases the important value of out of home in influencing consumer purchase decisions. Seven in ten consumers recently noticed OOH ads on their way to shop in retail stores and over half of them report the ads influence their purchase decisions. Mobile devices will play a large role in this season, and OAAA’s research shows 76% of adults 18-64 have recently taken an action on their mobile device following OOH ad exposure (Morning Consult) and 74% took action after digital OOH ad exposure (The Harris Poll).
BIA Outlook
- 71% of holiday shoppers plan to start purchases before November.
- 85% of Americans reduced holiday spending last year due to inflation.
- 40% of shoppers will use mobile devices for in-store purchases.
- Anticipated holiday shopping expenditures are approximately $1.39 trillion.
BIA reports Inmar’s survey reveals the key attributes consumers say will influence their holiday purchases:
- 55% Discounts, coupons & promotions
- 43% Convenience (free shipping, curbside pickup, etc.)
- 37% Loyalty rewards or member perks
- 32% Easy return or exchange policies
eMarketer Outlook
Retail sales growth will slow to its lowest since 2009 due to tariffs and economic uncertainty, making it a tough season for brands to offset weak annual performance. Marketers should brace for tighter consumer budgets and tap into mobile commerce, social media, and AI tools.
- Sales Slowdown: In-store sales will be flat, while modest ecommerce growth will be driven mainly by mobile.
- Cyber Five Rebound: Thanksgiving weekend, led by Black Friday, will slightly outperform overall ecommerce, with early deals starting in October.
- Deal-Seeking Behavior: Consumers will focus on discounts and small-ticket items, with toys, hobbies, and apparel leading online category growth.
- Diverging Growth: Amazon and Walmart will exceed 50% of holiday ecommerce share, though shoppers will also turn to small and budget-friendly retailers.
- Social & AI Search Rise: Gen Z will lead a shift toward using platforms like TikTok and ChatGPT for gift ideas and shopping guidance.
McKinsey Outlook
- Holiday shoppers are approaching the season with caution, adjusting spending and focusing more on essentials. Many are cutting back on non-essential purchases and starting their shopping earlier.
- Millennials are leading this early start, with 37% beginning before October – well above the 28% average of all age groups. In contrast, only 11% of consumers plan to start their shopping during Black Friday weekend.
- Baby boomers show the most reluctance to spend, with 22% opting out of holiday shopping altogether—8 points higher than the adult average.
The chart below shows the most popular items for planned purchases this season.
Source: BIA, eMarketer, Inmar, LG Ad Solutions, McKinsey, Morning Consult, The Harris Poll
Published: September 24, 2025